Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) Stock

Golub Capital BDC (NASDAQ:GBDC ) Q4 2024 Results Conference Call November 20, 2024 10:00 AM ET Company Participants David Golub - Chief Executive Officer Matt Benton - Chief Operating Officer Chris Ericson - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Robert Dodd - Raymond James Paul Johnson - KBW Ray Cheesman - Anfield Capital Operator Hello, everyone, and welcome to GBDC's Earnings Call for the Fiscal Year and Fiscal Quarter Ended September 30, 2024. Before we begin, I'd like to take a moment to remind our listeners that remarks made during this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.45 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.50 per share a year ago.

Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.45 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.50 per share a year ago.

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. shares have dropped 13% since April 2024 due to rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. Despite concerns, Golub offers a 10%+ dividend yield, low non-accrual rates, and trades around its net asset value. The merger with Golub Capital BDC3 bolstered assets and liquidity, but recent financial results showed mixed performance due to write-downs and higher borrowing costs.

Golub Capital BDC currently sports a 10% yield that is well-covered by their income. Golub Capital BDC remains a high-quality investment despite the slight increase in non-accruals during Q3 earnings. In this article, I discuss their latest earnings, and why the BDC remains a smart, attractive income play in the current market.

Golub Capital's base dividend will withstand a few more cuts, but investors have to be wary of the long-term risks and potential yield-on-cost. Despite the recent interest rate cut, GBDC's dividend coverage remains strong. GBDC trades around its net asset value, presenting an attractive valuation but with risks tied to interest rates, capital gathering, and economic conditions.

Golub Capital BDC trades at a slight discount to NAV despite strong dividend coverage and below-average leverage. Q3 2024 earnings report shows GBDC's non-accruals remain low, with leverage decreasing to 1.05x debt-to-equity. Adjusted NII per share significantly exceeds quarterly distribution, ensuring a robust 123% coverage.

Insider buying in Golub Capital BDC and Capital Southwest suggests potential for higher share prices, despite recent sector retraction due to anticipated lower interest rates. Golub Capital BDC offers an attractive investment with a 2.5% discount to NAV, a strong balance sheet, and significant insider buying. I currently rate them a buy. Capital Southwest still trades at a 51.4% premium above its NAV price, prompting me to assign a hold rating as the share price could pull back further in the near future.

Weak asset quality high rates and macroeconomic woes are likely to hurt Zacks SBIC & Commercial Finance industry players like Golub Capital (GBDC), Barings BDC (BBDC) and Crescent Capital (CCAP). Yet, a rise in financing demand across sectors is likely to aid.