Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) Stock

Trendy shoe brands such as Hoka, On and Birkenstock are taking a page out of luxury's playbook.

Investors need to pay close attention to Birkenstock Holding PLC (BIRK) stock based on the movements in the options market lately.

Birkenstock is expanding into untapped Asian markets and emphasizing sustainability, creating strong growth potential and differentiation from competitors. Financial performance has been robust, with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, demonstrating resilience in a challenging economic environment. My DCF analysis indicates the stock is undervalued, with a potential 67.1% upside, supporting a "BUY" recommendation.

Birkenstock didn't grow direct-to-consumer revenue as much as investors hoped, which modestly affected sales and profits. The company is still setting records and has great margins, so it's worth paying attention to for now.

Birkenstock shares fell over 20% post-lackluster Q2 results, but I recommend buying the dip due to strong growth prospects, especially in Asia. Despite weaker-than-expected near-term growth, Birkenstock maintains its full-year outlook and offers a more reasonable valuation at current share prices near $50. Birkenstock's high gross margins and double-digit revenue growth, particularly in under-penetrated Asian markets, present an attractive long-term investment opportunity.

Birkenstock's Q3 2024 showed an impressive 19% YoY revenue growth, but the stock price dropped 20% due to a revenue and earnings miss. Despite strong performance, high valuations and fashion risk make Birkenstock's stock inherently risky, leading me to maintain a Hold rating. The company's shift from DTC to B2B impacted gross margins, but management's guidance of 20% topline growth and 30% EBITDA margins remains intact.

Birkenstock NYSE: BIRK has been on a strong run since going public in October 2023. Shares were up 54% prior to the release of its fiscal Q3 earnings on Aug. 29.

Birkenstock's shares trade at a very high valuation despite decelerating revenue growth, contracting gross profit margins, and insiders selling. The company's third-quarter results missed revenue and profit expectations, and forward guidance was weak. Birkenstock's strategy of creating artificial scarcity is risky and could backfire, giving competitors an opportunity to capture unmet demand.

The company has focused on expanding its retail fleet and boosting production, which squashed margins.