ACRE Stock Overview

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE: ACRE) announced today that it will report earnings for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024 on Wednesday, February 12, 2025 prior to the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation will hold its webcast/conference call on the same day at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024 financial results. All interested parti.

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ACRE's heavy exposure to distressed asset classes like office, multifamily, and hotels, coupled with rising delinquencies, justifies a Sell rating. Despite management's optimistic outlook, ACRE's increasing credit loss reserves and poor loan performance signal ongoing struggles in the commercial lending market. Multifamily and office markets continue to face significant challenges, with high vacancy rates and oversupply leading to falling rents and asset underperformance.

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ACRE's stock has dropped by 25% since the initial bearish article. ACRE reduced its dividend from 33 cents to 25 cents in February 2024, but distributable earnings continue to come in well below this new level. Despite a slight improvement in Q3, ACRE's base earnings run-rate remains severely impaired.

Preferred shares rallied, as predicted. Finding value is getting much harder. There are some common shares trading at discounts. Some big, some tiny. I would be interested in a few of the agency mortgage REITs, but the ones I would prefer remain unavailable. The valuation between those good ones and some of the weaker ones (as measured by things like destruction of shareholder wealth and me not liking them) is still small sometimes.

Ares Commercial Real Estate failed to cover its dividend with distributable profits in 3Q24, reflecting high dividend adjustment risk and ongoing loan issues. The trust's portfolio has shrunk by 15% due to selling impaired loans, leading to a 72% YoY drop in distributable profits and negative net income. Ares Commercial Real Estate's stock trades at a 32% discount to book value, but the elevated dividend risk necessitates a rating change from 'Buy' to 'Hold.'.

Ares Commercial continues to face problems related to impaired loans in its office segment. The commercial mortgage REIT was forced to increase its CECL reserve in the third-quarter. ACRE realized losses of $0.10 per-share related to loan sales. Even when adjusting for such loan losses, the REIT did not support its dividend with distributable earnings.