BND ETF

On Thursday, Vanguard released two new active bond ETFs. These funds offer different perspectives in terms of municipal bond investing.

Emerging market (EM) assets are benefiting from a post-election rally as investors are now more clear on what the incoming presidential administration will look like. In the meantime, if emerging market assets continue trending higher, consider bond exposure.

Trump's Polymarket election odds have a 73% R-squared to the 10-year Treasury rate, indicating that a Trump win would lower high-duration bond prices. A Republican sweep of the House and Senate may exacerbate losses by making deficit spending policies more feasible. However, the same can be argued for a Democrat sweep. My long-term view on high-duration Treasury bonds is decidedly bearish, given the bipartisan consensus against fiscal responsibility and pro-inflationary Fed policies.

Recommend buying Vanguard Total Bond ETF due to exaggerated market hopes for deeper rate cuts, leading to recent bond underperformance. BND offers broad exposure to the American fixed income market, with over 11,000 bonds and a 0.03% management fee. Historical data shows bonds have returns over 10% during rate-cut cycles, making the Fund an attractive investment opportunity.

Two Vanguard ETFs that could be perfect for hands-off investors looking for solid returns.

As noted in the Financial Times, investor demand for bonds is translating into record inflows for fixed income ETFs. On that note, it's an ideal time to get core exposure amid the revival of bonds.

As the economy cools down and the U.S. Federal Reserve eases into a more accommodative monetary policy, the prospect of a potential recession could push even more investors to bonds. But recession or not, investors can still reap the benefits of core bond exposure.

BND's short-term outlook is positive due to lower inflation expectations and a potential end to or reduction in QT activity. Key bond risks include potential oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions and rising corporate credit risk during stock market crashes. In the long term, BND is not ideal due to concerns about US government debt, which makes its debt unpayable without chronically elevated inflation.

In December 2023, I rated BND and AGG as Strong Buys due to economic slowdown and anticipated Fed rate cuts; both ETFs delivered decent returns. I now downgrade BND and AGG to Hold, as the market overreacted to economic data, pricing in more rate cuts than likely. Despite being slightly overpriced, BND and AGG still offer attractive yields (4.16% and 4.22%) for income-focused investors, with minimal downside risk.