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The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF surged 61% in 2024, driven by President Javier Milei's ultra-liberal economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment and stable inflation. Argentina's economic outlook for 2025 remains bullish due to falling inflation, fiscal discipline, reduced country risk, and projected GDP growth of 5.5%. ARGT offers diversified exposure to Argentine equities, with significant holdings in MercadoLibre, YPF S.A., and Grupo Galicia, though high exposure to MercadoLibre poses some risk.
The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF provides targeted exposure to the rapidly evolving Argentine economy. Under the leadership of President Javier Milei, who was elected in 2023 following a campaign calling for an abrupt shift in economic policy, Argentina is embracing economic orthodoxy and pro-business policies. While some of these dramatic shifts, which followed decades of Peronist policies, weighed on the day-to-day life of the average Argentine, we believe that the country is in a much better position to support long-term growth in the private sector, bring down inflation, increase gross domestic product, leverage its abundant natural resources, and attract foreign investment.
We have highlighted three ETFs each from the best and worst-performing zones in 2024.
The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF offers a liquid investment in Argentina's top companies, providing exposure to the country's economic potential under libertarian policies. President Javier Milei's vision includes reducing welfare, lowering taxes, promoting entrepreneurship, lowering inflation, and stabilizing the economy to foster growth and prosperity. Argentina's rich natural resources, historical success, and human capital position it for a resurgence with the right policies.
Below is a look at year-to-date total returns for 46 country ETFs available to investors on US exchanges. While the US is sitting on a huge gain of 28.6% this year, the average year-to-date change for these country ETFs is just 8.7%. Nine country ETFs are in the red for the year. France is the most notable and the only G7 country that's down in 2024.
I recommend buying the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEARCA: ARGT) due to Argentina's strong economic reforms and projected GDP growth of 8.5% in 3Q24. Despite a 60% price increase this year, ARGT's P/E ratio remains lower than the global average, indicating a large margin of safety. Valuation analysis shows ARGT trading at 13.5x earnings, below its 5-year average, suggesting an upside of 14.8% to 18%.
The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF has surged nearly 35% in 2024, driven by President Milei's austerity measures and economic reforms. Key holdings like MercadoLibre, YPF Sociedad Anónima, and Argentine banks have significantly contributed to ARGT's performance, reflecting Argentina's economic recovery. Despite the ETF's price appreciation, valuations remain attractive compared to other emerging market peers, and ARGT still offers upside potential.
US equities have outperformed the rest of the world for a long time now. While the US is up 58% on a total return basis during the current bull market, the rest of the world is up 13.5 percentage points less at +44.5%. Looking at the international dividend ETF over a longer time frame, over the last five years, it's up 20.6% in price and more than double that on a total return basis.
Over the last couple of years, ARGT has delivered outstanding alpha of 3.5x relative to global markets. Argentina's growth prospects have taken another hit. ARGT's top holding is more exposed to the Brazilian region with over half its revenues coming from there.
Argentine equities have rallied post-election. But valuations remain quite reasonable relative to the improving fundamentals. Low-cost ARGT remains a great play on the structural reform story.
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