SH ETF

The ProShares Short S&P500 ETF offers a relatively high income hedge against a decline in the S&P500. The SH ETF has historically tracked the inverse of the S&P500 effectively, minus the 0.88% expense fee, and has seen renewed inflows recently. The SH ETF is aimed at benefitting from short-term declines in the S&P500 but has performed well historically over extended periods following high-yield spreads between cash and stocks.

SH is a simple way to short the S&P 500, consistently outperforming its intended -1x target and offering an impressive 6.11% TTM dividend. It outperforms when the VIX is low and the S&P 500 makes large daily swings. This was evident on Wednesday when the S&P 500 closed +0.85% higher, while SH closed only -0.77% lower. The cumulative effect of this can be very beneficial.

As investors search for safe havens in volatile markets, bear market funds are gaining popularity as a diversified asset class designed to withstand exceptionally volatile markets. While bear market funds can be appealing during periods of economic downturn due to their potential to produce returns against market movements, these funds can also be exceptionally volatile and risky.

ProShares Short S&P500 ETF is an unleveraged and easy way to short the S&P 500. SH does not always achieve its intended -1x daily performance of the S&P 500, but this tends to work in its favor while volatility is low. SH pays a quarterly dividend from its holdings in T-Bills.

The S&P 500 is expected to consolidate at 4,800 before breaking out and making new highs. Buying activity in SH is still too high and suggests caution on shorting the S&P 500 at current levels. Assets under management in SH are contracting but are still high enough to suggest the stock market has higher to go.

Shorting and inverse trading does not work well in the long run, despite disagreement among investors. ProShares Short S&P500 ETF offers inverse exposure to the daily performance of the S&P 500. SH achieves its net short position through swap contracts and is subject to risks associated with derivatives.

ProShares Short S&P500 is currently paying a higher cash yield than owning stocks long through a regular index fund. The trust is yielding around 3.5% annualized on a forward basis, with excess cash income beyond its management fee paid to holders. This setup is encouraging risk takers to go short stocks instead of long, a major change of tune for investors.

Interest in SH has been declining, with the number of shares outstanding dropping from 250,000,000 last October to 117,256,000. This is a positive signal for a higher stock market. There has never been a bear market, or major market decline, to start until buying in SH first dropped to just 5% of assets. It's currently at 17% of assets. SH should be avoided at this time. We expect the start of another bear market, and a possible investment in SH, later this year.

In 2023, despite expectations of a market collapse, equities rallied as short positions were covered and long put positions closed. Hedging strategies, such as selling equities or using inverse ETFs like ProShares Short S&P500 ETF, can help reduce risk for retail investors. A risk-off event is expected in the second half of the year, and investors should consider hedging strategies to protect their portfolios.