VEA ETF

The Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares offers broad exposure to foreign developed markets, including the EU, UK, Japan, and S. Korea. Europe's natural gas storage levels are plummeting, potentially leading to a repeat of the 2022 natural gas price spike. Major LNG consumers like Europe, Japan, and S. Korea are bidding up prices, leading to sharply higher energy costs.

VEA ETF underperforms due to heavy exposure to stagnant European and Pacific economies. Rising global trade tensions further limit VEA's growth potential. I give a "Sell" rating for the VEA ETF.

I maintain a buy rating on VEA due to its attractive valuation, strong diversification, and higher dividend yield compared to US equities. VEA's underperformance relative to the S&P 500 is due to its lower exposure to tech and higher exposure to cyclical sectors. The US Dollar Index's stability in 2024 has been a tailwind, but VEA's diversified holdings have limited its alpha generation.

VEA is a buy due to solid outlook for developed markets including Japan, its low expense ratio, high diversification, and substantial dividend yield. VEA excludes emerging markets and therefore reduces risks associated with Chinese holdings including tariffs and investment bans. VEA offers investors with diversification away from U.S. markets which currently have multiple indicators of being overvalued.

Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 but has shown modest alpha since mid-February. VEA has a compelling valuation and some foreign-developed stock markets are reaching all-time highs. VEA's low PEG ratio, high dividend yield, diversified allocation across sectors, and improved chart are positive factors.

The S&P 500 has rallied 17% in just over two months, and US stock valuations are "stretched." The rest of the world is lagging the US in terms of inflationary trends, central bank policy and valuations. Investors may start looking for a catch-up play outside the US, considering ETFs like Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF and Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF.

We juxtapose VEA against its largest developed market peer-IEFA. We pick out a couple of themes that could weigh on VEA's performance. We close with some thoughts on the valuations and the technicals.

Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF offers diversification in developed foreign markets as an alternative to U.S.-centric investments. VEA has trailed the S&P 500 due to limited exposure to high-growth sectors, but may benefit from a credit event. VEA provides diversification and attractive valuation compared to U.S. stocks, but caution is advised due to momentum weakness and Federal Reserve policy.

At the present time, I am maintaining a cautious outlook, with my portfolio split almost evenly between cash, bonds, and equities. With respect to the equity portion, I continue to be diversified between U.S. and international stocks.