USHY ETF

The narrowing spread between U.S. investment-grade yields and high-yield bonds has become a risk to consider. Historically, high-yield bonds underperform during periods of spread expansion, as seen in 2018 and 2020. The current divergence between the yield spread and the VIX index indicates rising market volatility and declining risk perception.

iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF is the largest “junk bond” ETF, based on assets under management. The USHY ETF has an attractive yield, but its price has suffered a 12% decay since 2017 and distributions have not kept pace with inflation. USHY has a very cheap fee and outperformed most competitors, but it lags “fallen angels” funds.

The iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has shown strong performance, with 3-year rates decreasing over the past 6 months and credit spreads also falling. We believe that lower credit spreads are a positive sign, especially as concerns arise about the possibility of a soft landing. The inverted yield curve may already be factoring in potential rate decreases due to worsening economic conditions and upcoming maturity walls.

The ETF USHY is a preferred investment solution compared to its competitors, as high-yield bonds have historically maintained their value. The current yields of the ETF present a low-risk premium, despite the default risk of junk bonds remaining essentially stable (expected to be 4.74% for December 2024). However, the ETF has always demonstrated a great ability to preserve capital.

iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF has a broad diversification and decent performance compared to peers, but mid-term outlook is not appealing. Current credit spreads suggest high-yield bonds are priced optimistically, despite worsening economic data. Investors should proceed with caution and be aware of risks when investing in USHY and similar high-yield bond ETFs.

Credit spreads are abnormally tight, indicating a potential risk of a credit event in the bond market. The iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF may not be the best choice for investors due to the potential credit event. USHY offers a higher yield compared to other high yield bond ETFs, but carries significant risks. Investors should carefully consider these risks before investing.

Goldman Sachs predicts an increase in domestic high-yield defaults, followed by a retreat in the second half of next year. In August, corporate defaults reached the highest level since 2009, while corporate buybacks were down 20.4% in Q2. The iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF offers a high yield-to-maturity compared to the S&P 500, but credit spreads remain modest.

USHY's implied credit spread for its higher yield portfolio is in line with the broader market, but where historically spreads are low in the face of a recession. This seems to mean that the market believes that the inflation is mostly supply side and that current rates aren't that high above healthy neutral rates. While we tend to agree with aspects of this idea, USHY has no upside if markets are wrong, so we're not interested.