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Silver price is doing well this year even as other industrial metals like iron ore and copper crash. It has jumped by 25.50% this year, beating gold, which has risen by 22.5% and currently sits at a record high.
SLV price pulled back to $24.5 after peaking around $30 recently. I will explain why the pullback will be short-lived. Several fundamental forces can drive a price rebound.
Silver is a robust hedge against monetary debasement, as evidenced by its stable long-term performance compared to the monetary base. The monetary base is slowly declining due to quantitative tightening, with silver liable to crash or correct if stocks falter on lower market liquidity. Silver's average performance over the past nine stock market crashes is -16%, though it usually falls by more during the initial phase of a decline.
Gold and silver futures looked to post their highest settlements in a month on Friday as downbeat U.S. economic data fueled expectations for an interest-rate reduction by the Federal Reserve.
Gold and silver futures climbed Thursday, with prices for both metals headed for their highest settlements in two weeks, as U.S. economic data raised prospects for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts later this year.
SLV: Silver's Technical Analysis Indicates a Breakout
Central banks and individuals are buying tons of gold, creating a sustained base for gold to continue breaking out. Gold ETFs are experiencing outflows, but money managers are expected to become more active in the market.
For investors seeking momentum, iShares Silver Trust SLV is probably on the radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and moved up 31% from its 52-week low of $18.97 per share.
SLV is a great historical hedge against increases in the US monetary base associated with direct or indirect fiat currency devaluation. MoM Services inflation has risen back to 8% annualized, pointing toward an impending rise in headline inflation. Silver is discounted compared to gold and the consumer price index, despite its tremendous hedge potential against the US monetary base.
Silver has been flat in 2023 but has maintained its price despite renewed strength in the stock market and a strong US dollar. The correlation between silver and the monetary base suggests that the monetary base will need to increase for silver to rise in value. The potential decline in the monetary base in early 2024 could lead to bank failures or strains, prompting more aggressive Federal Reserve policies and potentially causing silver to rise.
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