Belden (BDC) News & Sentiment

Part 1 of this article compares GBDC's recent quarterly change in NAV, quarterly and trailing 12-month economic return, NII, and current valuation to 11 BDC peers. Part 1 also performs a comparative analysis between each company's investment portfolio as of 9/30/2024 and 12/31/2024. This includes an updated percentage of investments on non-accrual status. I also provide a list of the other BDC stocks I currently believe are undervalued (a buy recommendation), overvalued (a sell recommendation), and appropriately valued (a hold recommendation).

As a structural BDC bull I have to admit that the period of BDCs consistently surprising us on the upside has come to an end. Many lower quality BDCs have already cut their dividends to sync their cash flows with less favorable private credit lending environment. I would say that the moment of truth for high quality BDCs is also very close, where we will see how really durable their base dividends are.

I maintain a buy rating on Kayne Anderson BDC due to its attractive financials, strong distribution coverage, and undervalued market price despite recent growth. KBDC's portfolio has grown impressively, with a fair value of $1.99B, and maintains a high starting dividend yield of 9.7%. The portfolio is well-structured with 98% first lien and 100% floating rate investments, providing both income generation and defensive measures.

We take a look at the action in business development companies through the last week of February and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs remained flat amid volatile risk sentiment, with TCPC underperforming due to a poor quarter and dividend cut, while February saw slight overall gains for the sector. JPMorgan's $50bn direct lending initiative and merger of its commercial and investment banks could increase competition for BDCs in corporate lending.

Goldman Sachs BDC has revised its dividend policy and fee structure, reducing the regular dividend but adding supplemental dividends to maintain overall payouts. Despite a 29% "cut" in the regular dividend, the BDC will pay supplemental dividends. The BDC's non-accrual percentage has decreased slightly in Q4'24, but the dividend safety margin has been reduced due to underperforming investments.

Why BDCs may be entering a dangerous phase. Avoid these risks before it's too late. One BDC stands out as a safe bet, and is my top pick right now.

Belden has improved its strategic focus and organic growth in 2024, making it a more attractive investment despite past execution issues. The company's revenues are split between Industrial Automation Solutions and Enterprise Solutions, with the former being both larger and more profitable. Despite a challenging time, Belden's debt reduction and strategic acquisitions position it well for future growth, even if an $8 earnings per share target is not met this year.

Adding Business Development Company assets post-Covid became crucial; I currently hold Ares Capital and Hercules Capital for their high yields and positive returns. New Mountain Finance specializes in defensive growth industries, but its EPS for 2024 is 30% less than in 2017. NMFC's dividends haven't grown over the past decade, and its Book Value has decreased, earning it a Strong Sell rating.

Goldman Sachs BDC has underperformed despite a favorable interest rate environment, with a 35.26% decline and a recent 29% dividend cut. Structural changes, including a reduced incentive fee and a new dividend policy, offer flexibility but credit quality remains a concern. High non-accruals, declining NAV, and increased PIK income signal potential trouble, warranting caution for dividend investors.