CrocsNASDAQ: CROX

CROX's Q3 results reflect continued strength. Expectations for HEYDUDE and a subdued consumer environment in the United States and China hurt its guidance.

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Crocs has been oversold at current levels, as the market over-reacts to the softer FQ4'24 guidance and the stock tanking by -21% over two days. If anything, HEYDUDE has shown sequential sales growth since FQ1'24, with FY2025 likely to bring forth an easier YoY comparison. We also believe that the domestic demand headwinds may be well balanced by the double digit growths observed in the international region, with the pain likely to be temporal.

The stock got slammed after management lowered its guidance.

I maintain my “buy” rating for Crocs stock, while reducing my price target to $132, as the management reduced its FY24 revenue guidance, despite outperforming in its Q3 earnings report. The downward revision in FY24 revenue guidance is primarily driven by its HEYDUDE segment, which is taking longer than expected to demonstrate a material revival. However, underlying fundamentals of HEYDUDE are improving, with expanding gross margins and ASP's. Plus, easier comps in FY25 should act as a tailwind too.

Crocs stock is undervalued despite strong brand growth, presenting a potential buying opportunity. HEYDUDE's struggles impact results, yet CROX's core brand momentum remains solid. Crocs' cash flow and buybacks support long-term shareholder value despite market concerns.

Crocs' stock dropped nearly 20% after 3Q24 results, driven by declining operating margins and a delayed Hey Dude turnaround, despite international growth. CROX trades at a low P/E of 9x FY24 earnings because of concerns about margin sustainability and profitability. The Company's explosive post-pandemic growth now faces fashion risk, and Hey Dude's underperformance adds uncertainty to future revenue and margin stability.

Shares of Crocs plunged 19% due to HEYDUDE's ongoing struggles, but I see this as a buying opportunity given Crocs' overall investment case. Despite HEYDUDE's disappointing performance, Crocs' profitability remains robust, with expanding gross margins and record adjusted EPS expected for the year. Crocs' healthy free cash flow profile and balanced capital allocation plan, including debt repayment and share buybacks, improve the stock's appeal.

The heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Crocs (CROX) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earnings estimates higher indicates that the stock is ripe for a trend reversal.