BITO ETF

Bitcoin prices surge again ahead of Trump's inauguration day.

BITO: On-Chain Signals And Seasonality Say Bitcoin's Rally Isn't Over

A few years ago, a relatively under-the-radar commodity — uranium — came into the spotlight. Compared to many other commodities, uranium is in its early stages in the ETF world.

Bitcoin's post-election rally is consolidating, with positive drivers still present and potential for further gains as Trump's crypto-friendly administration forms. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF is outdated and underperforming due to its reliance on futures contracts. New Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 offer superior returns and lower expenses, making them preferable for buy-and-hold investors.

Bitcoin Strategy ETF offers exposure to Bitcoin with reduced volatility by tracking CME listed futures, avoiding direct custody and regulation risks. The ETF provides a substantial 50.88% yield, combining growth potential with stability through significant cash reserves in Treasury bills. Since its October 2021 launch, the ETF has grown assets under management to over $2.6 billion, a 120% increase in the past year.

Prefer holding Bitcoin directly or via competitors' ETFs over ProShares Bitcoin ETF due to lower fees and better tracking of Bitcoin prices. Bullish on Bitcoin with a price target of $125k by March, driven by strong ETF inflows, low exchange reserves, and potential regulatory support. Mt. Gox repayments and MicroStrategy's aggressive buying strategy are unlikely to disrupt the current bullish trend significantly.

The S&P 500's return this year looks impressive — until you look at bitcoin's 145% gain above $100,000. And investors turn to bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin's current bull run is driven by momentum, making it a high beta investment, but traditional valuation methods are challenging. BITO ETF tracks bitcoin via CME futures, but its structure leads to high dividends and lagging performance compared to spot bitcoin ETFs like IBIT. BITO's high monthly dividend impacts price performance, making it better suited for short-term options rather than long-term LEAPs.

Consensus thinking is that a Trump win would be positive for gold, Bitcoin, the dollar, and financial stocks, but negative for Treasury bonds and oil prices. USO lost about 5% of its value in the last month, while BITO gained more than 7%.