TriplePoint Venture Growth's high dividend yield of 16.3% is tempting, but its portfolio's resilience is questionable amid rising non-accruals and declining NAV. Despite reduced debt levels, TPVG's Q4 earnings disappointed with a net investment income of $0.32 per share, missing estimates. The portfolio's concentration in consumer products and services poses risks, especially with ongoing economic uncertainties and higher inflation.
TriplePoint Venture Growth reported weaker-than-expected Q4 earnings due to high non-accruals, leading to a 5.4% decline in net asset value in Q4'24. TPVG's 16% yield is still covered by net investment income, and I am maintaining a buy rating for now. TPVG trades at a 16% discount to NAV due to poor balance sheet quality, significantly underperforming rivals Hercules Capital and Horizon Technology Finance.
I've maintained a bearish stance on TriplePoint Venture Growth (TPVG) since May 2024; the stock has declined ~20% since then. TPVG's dividend is unsustainable despite a recent cut; another dividend reduction is likely this year due to ongoing financial headwinds. In this article I discuss in more details why I remain skeptical on TPVG.
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp (NYSE:TPVG ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 5, 2025 5:00 PM ET Company Participants Jim Labe – Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Sajal Srivastava – President and Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilhelms – Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Crispin Love – Piper Sandler Brian McKenna – Citizens Casey Alexander – Compass Point Christopher Nolan – Ladenburg Thalmann Paul Johnson – KBW Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.
TriplePoint Venture Growth (TPVG) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.32 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.33 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.47 per share a year ago.
Since the moment, when I issued my first bearish article on TriplePoint Venture Growth, the BDC has underperformed the index by ~37%. Currently, TPVG trades at a 14% discount to NAV and offers, at least optically, covered dividend of ~15.5%. This seems like an interesting opportunity to reconsider the case.
No retirement portfolio can be totally "hands off." Some work will be required to maintain success. I am collecting income, but not piling deeper into this company. We look at why I'm not selling out, but not buying hand over fist.
I initially issued a sell rating on TriplePoint Venture Growth due to weak net investment income and questionable distribution coverage, but recent Q3 earnings show improvement. TPVG's portfolio strategy focuses on lending to venture capital-backed companies, with a diverse debt portfolio, but remains vulnerable to interest rates. The current dividend yield of 17.6% is attractive for income investors but comes with additional risks compared to peer BDCs.
TriplePoint Venture Growth offers a high dividend yield but has a risky portfolio and poor net asset value performance, making it a less attractive investment. TriplePoint focuses on tech and venture growth stage companies, which increases potential returns but also elevates risks, especially in a high-interest-rate environment. The company's net asset value has declined consistently, and its high non-accruals and writedowns suggest ongoing financial issues within its portfolio.
TriplePoint Venture Growth has faced headwinds, cutting its dividend by 25% and underperforming peers in the BDC sector the past two years. TPVG's latest earnings showed missed estimates, declining portfolio value, but also some positive signs such as new commitments and reduced leverage. While TPVG's dividend is currently covered, risks of an additional cut remain due to declining portfolio value and potential economic downturns.