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Wheat prices spiked near the end of May, but have since fallen to a year-to-date loss of 8.65%. However, prices could get a bullish spark especially if global weather conditions continue to deteriorate.
Wheat prices are highly sensitive to geopolitical events, with the ongoing Ukraine conflict posing potential supply concerns that could lift prices in 2025 and beyond. Despite a bearish trend since the 2022 record high, recent patterns suggest a potential short-term bottom in CBOT wheat prices. The KCBT-CBOT wheat spread indicates abundant supplies, reducing consumer supply concerns and contributing to the bearish outlook for wheat prices.
Bullish wheat traders are feeling the pinch from all parts of the globe. That's because various producers and consumers could affect how prices will look for the commodity in the second half of 2024.
Potential investors seeking to diversify their portfolios with alternative assets should consider the increasing bullish outlook for wheat prices. This is particularly important given the current geopolitical situation and usual weather-related risks.
Even though the broader picture reveals a downtrend since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, wheat prices are staying resilient amid more headwinds. China recently canceled orders on that grain exported from the U.S. in what appears to be a cost-cutting effort.
Wheat futures declined on Friday, eyeing their first daily loss in nine sessions, while soybean futures traded lower after a monthly supply-and-demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Teucrium Wheat Fund provides a straightforward way for investors to tap into the wheat futures market. Investing in WEAT can serve as a hedge against market volatility and offer potential growth from the wheat market. However, there are risks involved, such as fluctuations in the wheat market due to weather conditions and geopolitical tensions.
Wheat futures declined on Thursday, with prices looking to post their largest one-day percentage loss in about four weeks. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its U.S. wheat supply outlook for the 2023/2024 marketing year by 10 million bushels to 145 million bushels.
The BEA's core PCE Price Index for September shows core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target, at 3.7%. The September core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 4.1%.
Geopolitical forces, harsh climate, and other factors contributed to a rough third quarter for wheat, but amid the bearish tones, some analysts see upside ahead for the agricultural commodity. It could be a simple case of market gravity where what comes up must eventually come down.
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