EWA ETF

Australian stocks have done well in 2024, although they have not kept pace with the S&P 500. I see some positives "down under", including a rising labor force participation rate and growing wages. However, there are headwinds that concern me more. These include richly priced valuations and an earnings season for banks that is likely to disappoint.

Australian shares are poised to rise on Wednesday, with futures showing a nearly 0.2% gain.

Australia has long been recognised for having the highest average dividend yield among global markets. However, this yield has been on a downward trend since 2022.

iShares MSCI Australia ETF provides targeted exposure to the Australian equities market, with a focus on large- and mid-cap companies. The EWA fund's top holdings include BHP Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CSL Ltd., National Australia Bank, and Westpac Banking Corporation. EWA offers a straightforward and low-cost way for investors to access the Australian equity market, but it has a significant concentration in the financial sector and may lack diversification benefits for those already exposed to the Asia-Pacific region.

EWA offers exposure to Australian large- and mid-caps, with a tilt toward financials and materials, resulting in a more comfortable P/E than that of the S&P 500. The issue is that Australia's economic growth is anemic, while inflation might require more action from the RBA. All these do not look bullish for stocks. EWA's past performance leaves a lot to be desired, with the 2010s and 2020s being especially challenging as it trailed SPY, delivering higher volatility.

The iShares MSCI Australia ETF offers exposure to the Australian equities market across 73 holdings, concentrated in the financials and basic materials sectors. Australia's growing strategic significance in the shifting geopolitical landscape, coupled with a solid macro foundation make it a potential investment opportunity. EWA offers diversification benefits and an attractive dividend profile, but current valuations and macro headwinds suggest a hold rating for now.

I am upgrading my outlook on the iShares MSCI Australia ETF to "buy" for a number of reasons. Gains in US markets are becoming increasingly concentrated in a few stocks, leading me to look for opportunities outside of the US market. The Australian consumer is in decent shape, and Australian banks are poised to collect high amounts of interest this calendar year.

iShares MSCI Australia ETF is rather above average in terms of expense ratios. Moreover, markets seem to broadly apply steep multiples to non-mining exposures in Australia, particularly financials. Since mining is what interests us in this ETF, we forego taking on what we think are too expensive exposures in non-mining sectors in Australia in favor of select picks.

Australian stocks have underperformed this year. Unlike its developed market peers, however, Australia's rate hike cycle is far from over. Ahead of a challenging year ahead, market pricing seems far too optimistic at these levels.