COMT ETF

Commodities may be poised for a bull run, and the iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF offers broad exposure across energy, metals, agriculture, and livestock. The COMT ETF uses a rule-based futures strategy to minimize costs, avoiding the complexities and expenses of directly handling futures contracts. The fund's sector allocation, particularly its heavy focus on energy, positions it to benefit from global demand and economic trends, while also providing inflation protection.

HSBC's chief economist Paul Bloxham described global commodity markets as being in a "super squeeze," primarily driven by supply constraints, as quoted on CNBC.

The US Dollar Index has strengthened, which is bearish for dollar-denominated commodities. Inflation is forecasted to be low, with a 10-year expected inflation breakeven rate under 2.2%, another bearish macro data point for the commodity index. US real GDP growth is expected to slow in the first half of 2024, impacting commodity prices, though tensions in the Middle East are possible upside catalysts for commodities.

The United States Commodity Index Fund is our preferred commodity ETF, followed by the iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF. COMT is an optimized commodity ETF that maximizes roll yields by selecting commodities and futures contracts with strong backwardation or mild contango. COMT has outperformed GSG and USCI since its inception, with lower volatility and a similar commodity exposure as GSG.

Commodities have not performed well as a safe haven investment compared to equities, particularly tech-growth stocks. The iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF has seen mixed inflows and outflows over the past 3 years. The performance of COMT is heavily influenced by energy prices and oil & gas stocks, with the top holdings being in the energy sector.